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A bettor made nearly half a million dollars by predicting the removal of Venezuela's president immediately preceding it was made public, raising questions about whether someone profited from inside knowledge of the US operation.

Changing Odds in Forecasts

Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a blockchain-based service, that Nicolás Maduro would be removed from office by the close of the month rose in the period preceding President Donald Trump announced on January 3rd that Maduro had been apprehended.

One account, which joined the platform in December and made four bets, all on political events in Venezuela, profited a total of $436K from a modest bet of over $32,000.

The identity is unknown. The anonymous account had only a blockchain identifier for identification.

Market Signals Before Public Statement

Market statistics shows that participants assessed the probability of the president's removal at just under 7% in the midday period of the Friday before the event.

However the market's assessment had jumped to over 10% by shortly before midnight and skyrocketed in the early hours of the next day, pointing to a sudden change in betting activity right before the official statement was made.

"This specific wager has all the hallmarks of a transaction based on non-public details," stated an industry expert.

Several of other traders also earned significant sums from similar wagers.

Political Attention Grows

Some lawmakers are growing concerned.

A bill put forward on the start of the week seeks to ban public officials from placing bets on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a bet.

The Prediction Market Landscape

Forecasting platforms have become increasingly popular in the past few years, with traders able to wager on everything from sports to political events.

Prediction markets faced scrutiny under the Biden administration. But it has found a more favorable environment during the present political climate.

Insider trading is illegal in the securities markets, but there are less oversight in the event betting space.

An official representative for Kalshi said their site "explicitly prohibits trading on insider information of any form."